Digital and technology trends
Within the Digital and ICT planning framework, this guideline describes how to conduct research into technology trends to inform planning activities and help identify potential changes in technology or disruptions that may have future impacts for the business.
Digital disruption is a catalyst for innovation and business transformation. Agencies must be able to recognise disruption as it happens or before it emerges and incorporate opportunities for innovation and new capabilities into digital and ICT strategies and plans.
This guideline focuses on identifying technology trends impacting service delivery and weaknesses in emerging technology changes. The activities will provide practitioners with an understanding of the technology trends that could influence the strategic direction of the organisation, disrupt the way in which future service could be provided or influence how consumers access and use information and services.
Audience
A practitioner in the context of this guideline can include one or more of the following roles:
- Digital and ICT strategic planners
- Agency and service strategic planners
- Workforce planners
- Enterprise architects
- Business analysts.
The term disruption is commonly used across government agencies. Disruption can generally be defined as something that causes transformation or is the result of a transformation initiative.
Gartner Inc defines digital disruption as an effect that changes the fundamental expectations and behaviours in a culture, market, industry or process that is caused by, or expressed through, digital capabilities, channels or assets.
Gartner (2017) identifies four key elements of disruption:
- Business—market, development, pricing and delivery.
- Industry—processes, standards, methods and customers.
- Society—culture, habits and movements.
- Technology—invention, design and usage.
The information obtained in horizon scanning may help practitioners to assess the impact of disruption across the elements of business, industry and society.
Gartner propose three simple steps to respond to disruptions, these are: Recognise, Prioritise and Respond. See the accordion tabs below to learn more about each step.
Many agencies use industry research partners as the primary method for recognising future digital or ICT capability trends. Industry partners are a valuable resource that can provide analysis around the predicted scale, reach and impact of technologies. This research is particularly useful when focusing on particular domains (e.g., robotics or wearable technologies).
Scanning for technology trends
Using hype cycles and technology trend reports are examples of exploratory scanning. In some cases, it may be possible to narrow the volume of information by narrowing the search according to the policy area of interest in your agency (e.g. health, education, transport, or the environment).
Refer to the Horizon scan guideline for more information on exploratory scanning and issues centred scanning.
Gartner recommends determining how different categories of disruptors address or affect the different elements of potential disruption. These are, business, technology, industry and society (Gartner Inc., 2017).
Example disruptor scenario
Statements such as, ‘by the year X people will have more conversations with a robot than with their spouse’ is an example of issues centred scanning. The practitioner would research the implications and probability of this occurring in the particular policy area of the agency and investigate how such technology or capability will or could shape future service delivery.
The table below highlights a possible response to the robotics and wearables scenario elements highlighted above.
| Disruptor | Element 1: Robotics | Element 2: Wearable technology |
|---|---|---|
| Business | Gradually more affordable for use in the home. | Affordable and accessible. |
| Technology | Emotionally intelligent. | Compact, comfortable, fashionable. |
| Industry | Configurable to suit many applications e.g. health, education, entertainment. | Multi-purpose, high-level of integration with other devices, high rates of continuous improvement and new product turnover. |
| Society | Trust, entertainment and companionship from humanoid devices. | Increased reliance on devices by the population to manage health, stay connected and be organised. |
The second step involves prioritisation using models for measuring and comparing the impact of disruptors over time such as the Gartner digital disruptor scale (Gartner Inc., 2017).
Gartner suggest three elements need to be considered in the determination of the priority and impact of disruption, these are:
- Scale—can be measured by the quantities of things it delivers, such as how many people it effects or how much technology it uses
- Richness—the variety of capabilities delivered, or options created as a result of the disruption
- Reach—an evaluation of how widely spread a disruption might be, this could be in terms such as geography or demographics.
By assessing the scale, richness and reach, a determination can be made about the magnitude of the disruptor.
Example disruptor scenario
Think about the scope of apps and devices (e.g. sensors, phones and watches) on the market that people are using to track and manage their health on a day-to-day basis. The technology is rich, diverse and relatively inexpensive and has already disrupted or transformed how we think about measuring our wellness and exercise.
Responding is the action that organisations take in response to disruption.
Though the response may be refined during later planning activities conducted with the business representatives, practitioners should understand how these disruptors could represent an opportunity improve and future-proof delivery of services in the organisation.
Practitioners need to understand what capability is being delivered and how it translates to a business capability or the transformation of a service. It is also important to understand the risk to the business of not responding to disruptors.
Example disruptor scenario
How could the information (if it could be harnessed) on applications and devices that people are using to track and manage their health on a day-to-day basis help a clinician manage the overall health of patients and contribute to more personalised health plans?
How could the health industry prepare to respond to these changes?
The information collected through identifying technology trends can be carried forward into the planning process as technology influences that will shape the formulation of objectives and strategies.
This information can also be incorporated into visioning activities with the business representatives and presentations conducted as part of planning workshops. See the Vision guideline within this framework for more information.